Odds models favor Mississippi State and Oregon in Week 9 slate
Computer simulations place the Bulldogs and Ducks as top spread contenders, while the Buckeyes are listed as 6.5-point favorites over the Trojans.
By Benjamin Rousseau ·
SportsLine's computer model has released its projections for the Week 9 college football slate, identifying two teams as the most likely to cover their spreads. The system, which has recorded a 68-59 record on top-rated picks and returned nearly $400 for every $100 wagered, simulates each FBS game 10,000 times. Based on these simulations, Mississippi State and Oregon emerge as the primary recommendations for bettors entering the week.
The model projects Mississippi State to cover a 21-point spread against No. 11 Texas in a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff. The Bulldogs have covered in nine of their last 13 road games, whereas Texas is 3-9-1 against the spread following a win since Arch Manning became the starter. Manning has thrown nine turnovers this season, a total tied for second in the nation. The simulation suggests Mississippi State will keep the game within this large margin in over 70% of scenarios.
Oregon is the second team the model favors to cover, with the Ducks listed as 3.5-point favorites against No. 20 Northwestern. The simulation predicts Oregon will win by a touchdown in nearly 60% of runs. Northwestern has not beaten a winning team this season, and its last three visits to the West Coast have resulted in double-digit losses. Oregon's defense ranks in the top 10 nationally for interceptions, and its rushing duo of Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill is projected to gain over 160 yards.
The Week 9 schedule also features the first-ever Big Ten matchup between Ohio State and USC. The No. 2 Buckeyes are 6.5-point favorites in the 25th meeting between the two schools. In the SEC, Florida and Georgia meet after a bye week, with the Dawgs listed as 11.5-point favorites despite losing the previous five meetings to the Gators.
Other notable games include No. 1 Miami hosting North Carolina, where the Hurricanes are 14.5-point favorites. Bill Belichick will face a No. 1 ranked team for the first time in this contest. No. 6 Utah travels to Cincinnati as 6.5-point underdogs, while No. 7 UCLA faces Nevada as 22.5-point favorites in a non-conference game.
The model has also identified three point totals that deviate from the listed over/under by at least 10 points. The full slate of predictions covers every FBS matchup on the schedule, which includes Tuesday's games between Delaware and Western Kentucky, and Sam Houston and Missouri State.
Source: CBS Sports
