Hochul widens lead over Blakeman to 14 points in final week
Siena University poll shows the governor ahead in every region and among independents, while Mayor Mamdani's popularity surges in New York City.
By Michael Lombardi ·
New York voters are less than a week away from the ballot box, and the race for governor has consolidated around a clear frontrunner. A new survey from Siena University indicates that Kathy Hochul holds a commanding position over her Republican opponent, Bruce Blakeman, as the campaign enters its final phase.
The data reflects a trend established over the past month. In September, Siena recorded Hochul leading Blakeman 50% to 41% among likely voters. That margin expanded in the latest numbers, which show the governor ahead 54% to 40%. Steven Greenberg, the pollster at Siena, noted that Blakeman is running out of time to close a gap that continues to grow.
Hochul’s standing has improved across the board. Her favorability rating rose to 51%, marking the first time a majority of likely voters have viewed her positively during her five years in office. Her job approval also climbed to 51% from 48% in September. Conversely, Blakeman’s favorability sits at 39% favorable and 40% unfavorable, though the number of undecided voters regarding his reputation dropped from 31% to 21%.
The results vary by region. Hochul maintains a substantial 67% to 23% lead in New York City. In the downstate suburbs, the race is nearly even, with Hochul holding a 49% to 47% edge. Upstate, the two candidates are statistically tied, with Hochul leading by a single point, 49% to 48%. Among independents, Hochul leads 51% to 40%, reversing a 44% to 39% advantage Blakeman held in September.
Voter expectations align with the polling numbers. Sixty-eight percent of likely voters believe Hochul will win reelection, while only 23% expect Blakeman to prevail. Greenberg highlighted that even within the Republican base, confidence is mixed, with 40% of GOP voters saying Hochul will win.
The survey also tracked the influence of national figures. Sixty-one percent of New Yorkers view President Donald Trump unfavorably. Forty-eight percent believe Trump’s endorsement has been a negative factor for Blakeman’s campaign, compared to 28% who see it as positive. In New York City, Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s favorability jumped to 69%, up from 60% in September.
Siena conducted the survey from Oct. 19 to Oct. 22, polling 807 likely New York voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
Source: Long Island Press
