Rays Cut Brewers' Lead to 3-1, but 14.6% Is the Number They Must Beat

The Tampa Bay Rays beat the Milwaukee Brewers 4-3 in 12 innings on Tuesday, taking Game 4 of the World Series. The result kept Tampa Bay from being swept and cut Milwaukee's series lead to 3-1. Game 5 is set for Wednesday. For fans, that means a trip to the ticket window for another night at the park.

The comeback path is narrow. In MLB postseason history, 42 teams have trailed 3-0, and the 2004 Boston Red Sox are the only one to come back, a rate of about 2.4%. Of 96 teams that have fallen behind 3-1 in a best-of-seven series, 14 rallied to win, which puts the Rays' chances at 14.6%. Teams down 3-1 are 50-50 in Game 5.

The Rays' pitching plan for Game 5 is unsettled. Manager Kevin Cash used seven pitchers in Game 4, a game his staff treated as must-win. Nick Martinez, who had been slated to start Wednesday, instead threw two scoreless innings in relief on 33 pitches. Griffin Jax threw 74 pitches and is presumably unavailable. Cole Sulser, Steven Matz and Garrett Cleavinger did not pitch Tuesday. Bryan Baker and Kevin Kelly threw in Game 4 but sat out Monday's Game 3 loss, so they are presumably available. Ian Seymour threw 32 pitches in Game 4, which may rule him out. Tyler Wells and Cameron Booser have each pitched two days running, though the stakes could bring them back. Drew Rasmussen, who started Game 2, would be on three days of rest and has never made a short-rest start in his career.

Milwaukee has its starter set. Jacob Misiorowski, the 24-year-old NL Cy Young favorite, will make his fourth start of the playoffs. He went five innings against Tampa Bay in Game 1, allowed one run and earned the win. He worked that outing on 11 days of rest; on Wednesday he will work on the standard four. He is also well into career-high workload territory this year, and it is unclear whether his Game 1 sharpness will return. The Brewers could use length from him because their bullpen worked hard in Game 4.

Tampa Bay's best hitter left Game 4 in the 12th inning with a left foot injury, shortly after reaching base on a throwing error by Joey Ortiz. Cash said, "He'll play tomorrow on one leg. I'll make sure of it." Junior Caminero, 23, has a .717 OPS in the playoffs but one home run in 48 at-bats, after hitting 42 homers in the regular season, one every 14.7 at-bats.