Redrawn District 13 Set for Tight Vote as Gray and Lincoln Close Fundraising Gap

Voters in California's 13th Congressional District will cast ballots on Nov. 3 in a race defined by a recent narrow victory and a substantial financial gap between the two candidates. Democratic incumbent Adam Gray holds a $2 million lead over Republican challenger Kevin Lincoln, according to Federal Election Commission filings released in June.

The district’s history makes the contest unpredictable. Gray won the seat two years ago by defeating John Duarte by 187 votes out of 210,921 cast. That margin was one of the smallest in the nation. The new boundaries, drawn after Proposition 50, now include downtown Stockton, a change that prompted Lincoln to switch his primary target from Josh Harder to Gray.

Lincoln, a former Stockton mayor and Marine, entered the race with the full backing of President Donald Trump. Trump granted Lincoln his "Complete and Total Endorsement" in December, a support Lincoln says he remains "honored and thankful" to carry. Lincoln argues this alliance gives him the strength to win a difficult election. He has recorded a video for the National Republican Congressional Committee detailing his time guarding Marine One and serving as a pastor.

The candidates agree that affordability is the central issue but disagree on the solution. Lincoln pledges to lower costs for gas, food, and utilities while cutting taxes. He accuses Gray of raising taxes during his time in the state legislature. Gray counters that he voted to reverse Medicaid cuts and limit presidential tariff powers without congressional approval.

Gray, a former state assemblymember, positions himself as an independent voice rather than a strict partisan. He served as a whip for the Blue Dog Coalition and recently criticized Trump's deportation policies as "irresponsible, reckless, dangerous." Lincoln points to soaring fuel prices since the war with Iran began, while Gray notes that Lincoln increased the state gas tax by 113% per gallon during his legislative service.

State records from 2023 show the district leans Democratic, with 42.3% of voters registered as Democrats and 28.5% as Republicans. Gray had $4.2 million in contributions and loans as of June 30. Lincoln held $2.2 million in the same period. The final vote will determine whether the seat remains with the moderate Democrat or returns to the Republican former mayor.