44% see steady finances before midterms

A recent NPR, PBS News, and Marist poll found that 44% of Americans believe their personal finances have remained mostly the same. Another 38% reported that their economic situations have worsened. Only 15% stated that their financial standing has improved. These figures underscore a split in public sentiment as the country approaches the midterm elections.

President Donald Trump faces record-low approval ratings and intense opposition from voters. Many blame him for rising prices on goods and energy. The administration’s war with Iran and its tariff policies have directly contributed to these cost increases. Regular Americans are struggling with inflation that outpaces wage growth, a middling labor market, and creeping interest rates. These higher rates make purchasing homes and cars more difficult for millions of people.

The political economy is increasingly divided. Wealthy individuals are benefiting from stock portfolios dominated by artificial intelligence companies. In contrast, many other voters are turning against AI data centers. This divide is angering swing voters and energizing Democrats. The administration’s hard-line immigration tactics and cuts to domestic programs like Medicaid have further complicated the political landscape.

History suggests the president’s party usually loses seats in midterm elections. Since World War II, the ruling party has gained House seats only twice. On average, the president’s party loses 26 seats in these cycles. When a president’s approval rating falls below 50%, the average loss increases to 35 seats. Trump’s approval rating has been below that threshold. His party is therefore facing a steep uphill battle.

Democrats have performed well in special elections and 2025 off-year races. They are currently favored to win control of the House. They are also within striking distance of capturing the Senate. This potential shift contrasts with the beginning of the cycle when a Senate takeover seemed unlikely. However, the extent of their gains remains uncertain due to structural factors.

The Cook Political Report identifies about 30 fewer competitive districts this year compared to 2018. In 2018, Democrats won a net gain of more than 40 House seats. Mid-decade redistricting has also insulated Republicans. An NPR analysis indicates that Republicans secured an estimated eight-seat advantage through redistricting. This gain could be reduced if Latino voters in South Texas turn out in high numbers.

The Democratic Party faces its own challenges. The party has struggled to unite a base of voters who are often restive and unsatisfied. Self-identified democratic socialists, however, are highly engaged and strongly disapprove of Trump’s job performance. Poll respondents indicated that 44% view their vote as a check against Trump, while 21% see it as a vote for him. This dynamic may influence turnout and voting patterns on election day.

Republican candidates are currently downplaying their connection to Trump in advertisements. They previously mentioned him frequently during the primaries. This shift reflects a strategy to appeal to swing voters who find Trump toxic. Republicans privately acknowledge that he is a double-edged sword. He is necessary for mobilizing the base but can hinder performance with moderate voters. The outcome will depend heavily on Republican turnout in red states.