Brazil Election: Lula Rally on Copacabana

Tens of thousands of supporters gathered on Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday to rally behind President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The crowd filled the 2.5-mile stretch of sand in a procession that many described as carnival-like. Participants wore red and carried banners and homemade signs in support of the leftwing leader. The event marked the final major public appearance before the presidential runoff scheduled for Sunday.

Approximately 159 million Brazilians are eligible to vote in the election. Lula and his opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro, are currently tied in the polls. Bolsonaro won the first round of voting on 4 October with 47% of the vote, compared to 45% for Lula. Historical records since the return of democracy in the 1980s show that no candidate who lost the first round has successfully won the subsequent runoff. A victory for Lula would therefore break a long-standing pattern in Brazilian political history.

Lula appears to have regained momentum in recent days after climbing in the polls. This shift coincides with several scandals involving his rival. Last week, the magazine Piauí reported that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party during the height of the 2020 coronavirus outbreak. The report stated that sex workers and vaccine lobbyists were present at the event as they sought a deal with the government of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro.

For many in the crowd, the stakes extend beyond standard political policy. Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. Some democratic supporters fear that Jair Bolsonaro could be freed or return to government if his son wins the upcoming vote. Brazilian press reports indicate that several of his fellow plotters, who are now jailed or in exile, could receive senior military and police positions under a Bolsonaro administration. Restaurateur Marta Moraes, 59, said she opposes the political movement of "Bolsonarismo" specifically, noting that she lost four relatives due to the handling of the pandemic under Jair Bolsonaro.

Organizers utilized social media to mobilize voters. Many participants belonged to "Lula's Army," a WhatsApp group with 10 million members that formed after the first round. Isabella Gaze, a retired teacher aged 64, stated that the election is not a normal contest. DJ and activist Cammy Marinho, 49, said she spent two weeks attempting to persuade Bolsonaro voters and first-round abstainers to switch sides. Fourteen-year-old Heitor Lopes da Silva traveled from Duque de Caxias in a wheelchair to show his support.

Bolsonaro supporters also held demonstrations in other cities. In Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais, thousands gathered in Praça da Liberdade. Participants wore yellow football jerseys and waved Brazilian and US flags. Minas Gerais holds the country's second-largest electorate and serves as a key bellwether state, as no candidate has won the presidency without carrying it. Bolsonaro led the first-round voting in that state by just under 5%.

Supporters in Belo Horizonte emphasized security as their primary concern. Shooting club owner Antonio Carlos Costa Jr, 59, argued that Jair Bolsonaro gave citizens the right to defend themselves and that his son would continue that policy. Security experts note that the loosening of gun laws under Jair Bolsonaro diverted many firearms to criminal gangs, while Lula has since tightened the rules. Architect Erika Cavalcante, 43, carried a sign reading "Don't let the mobsters win," reflecting doubts among Lula supporters about Bolsonaro's ability to curb crime given his ties to Rio's paramilitary militias.