Lunar Missions: 22 Starship Flights Needed for Moon Landing

NASA has long avoided committing to a specific number of SpaceX Starship launches required for lunar missions, but a new estimate from a safety panel has now emerged. During its quarterly meeting on Thursday, the agency's Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel addressed risks associated with the Artemis Program and the prospect of returning humans to the Moon.

The panel's member, Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, provided an estimate for the number of Starship launches needed to support a lunar landing. The figure he cited is 22. This number of launches is required to fuel a Starship-based lunar lander in low-Earth orbit, enabling it to travel to the Moon, land, and return to lunar orbit.

For years, NASA has declined to provide a specific figure for these launches. The required number has been a moving target, with officials stating they were reluctant to provide an exact count. In 2023, then-director of NASA's Human Landing System, Lisa Watson-Morgan, said, “We have a general idea, but I’m reluctant to say exactly what that is.”

Later, she indicated the number was in the “high single digits to the low double digits,” while other officials have mentioned figures in the “high teens.” The plan has been for a SpaceX depot Starship to be filled with propellant by other tanker Starships for a lunar voyage. The hope has been that SpaceX would improve Starship's lift capacity to reduce the number of tanker flights.

Concerns have now been raised among some NASA officials regarding this improvement. They are concerned that it may not be happening soon enough to allow SpaceX’s Starship rocket to play a meaningful role in returning humans to the Moon for NASA as part of Artemis this decade.

The figure of 22 launches represents a significant number for a single mission. This estimate highlights the logistical scale involved in refueling a spacecraft for a lunar journey, a process that would require a substantial fleet of tanker flights to support the lander.