Israelis decide fate of 19-year rule

Voters in Israel cast ballots on Tuesday in a contest defined less by traditional left-right divides and more by a direct rejection or retention of Benjamin Netanyahu. The current prime minister first entered office three decades ago and has occupied the seat for 19 of those 30 years. Recent polling indicates the two camps, pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu, are nearly evenly matched.

The primary challenger is Gadi Eisenkot, a former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff who entered politics only four years ago. His party, Yashar, translates to straight or direct. Eisenkot advocates for US-style term limits for the prime minister, arguing that power corrupts. At a rally in Modi'in, located between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, attendees praised his plain speaking style. Noa Sadeh, a 56-year-old supporter, stated she is tired of politicians who talk and wants someone who acts.

The opposition coalition includes former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman. Both are figures from the nationalist right who previously worked closely with Netanyahu before breaking with him. On the far right, Yishai Fleisher of Otzma Yehudit argued in Bet Shemesh that Netanyahu has drifted left. Fleisher called for more settlements in the West Bank and Gaza, a ministry to manage the voluntary departure of Palestinians, and the implementation of the death penalty.

Netanyahu has framed the election as a choice between the right and Palestine. His campaign posters place opposition leaders alongside representatives of parties that advocate for Palestinian citizens, who make up about a fifth of the population. The central strategic question for the opposition is whether Jewish parties, which are forecast to outpoll the pro-Netanyahu bloc but lack a majority, will form a government with mainly Arab parties.

The election takes place against a backdrop of high casualties and political scrutiny. The war in Gaza has killed more than 70,000 Palestinians, a figure Israel says includes one-third Hamas combatants. The conflict failed to eradicate Hamas and has affected Israel's international standing. Netanyahu also faces legal challenges, including an ongoing corruption trial and the Qatargate affair. Oded Levi, a 2022 Netanyahu voter who attended the Eisenkot rally this week, noted that the prime minister is responsible for events that occurred during his tenure.

Despite these factors, Netanyahu maintains a loyal base. His allies claim that army and intelligence chiefs kept him uninformed of the October 7, 2023 attacks, a claim that lacks support. Many observers expect him to use his coalition-building skills to outmaneuver rivals in post-election negotiations. The result may hinge on a single seat in the 120-member Knesset, a margin that could be influenced by liberal expatriates returning to vote.

State ceremonies this week marked the 1995 assassination of Yitzhak Rabin. Netanyahu stayed away and sent a low-ranking minister in his place. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats and a former general, expressed optimism about the opposition's chances. He hopes leaders can agree on a regional strategic process for long-term security without using the word peace.

A video circulating this week showed young Israelis singing Shir LaShalom at a Negev music festival. The song was performed by Rabin before his death 31 years ago. Full flights home for voting and the popularity of the song suggest a shift in sentiment among some voters regarding the future of Netanyahu's leadership.