Russia hosts third Africa summit with trade ties still thin

Russia is hosting its third Russia-Africa summit in Moscow on October 28 and 29. The event marks a continued push to build international support following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has increased his visits to the continent, and spokesperson Maria Zakharova described the diplomatic push as a "historic return."

Economic data shows the partnership remains narrow. Total trade between Russia and all 54 African countries reached approximately $27 billion in 2025. Egypt accounted for roughly 39% of that volume. Bilateral trade between Moscow and Cairo hit $10.5 billion in 2025, more than double the 2021 level. Russian exports are driven by grain and metal products, while Egypt sends fruit and vegetables to Russia. The European Union traded $385 billion with the continent in the same period, while China exceeded $348 billion.

Russia is constructing a large nuclear power plant at El-Dabaa on Egypt's Mediterranean coast. A $25 billion Russian loan covers about 85% of the project's costs. Nikita Smagin, an expert on Russian policy in the Middle East, said Egypt could serve as Moscow's gateway to other markets. However, he noted that Cairo pursues its own interests and that political solidarity alone is insufficient. Ivan Klyszcz of the International Centre for Defence and Security pointed to Algeria as another key partner, while noting limited success in deepening ties with Tanzania and Ethiopia.

Moscow's security footprint is more visible than its commercial one. Russian mercenaries, including the defense ministry-controlled Africa Corps, back governments in unstable Sahel states. The Congressional Research Service reports the largest contingents, each consisting of several thousand fighters, are in the Central African Republic, Mali, and Libya. Russian forces have also been observed in Equatorial Guinea. Irina Filatova of the University of Cape Town cited mineral deposits and influence over Europe's southern borders as key drivers of this presence.

Russia remains a major arms supplier despite wartime export declines. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates Russia held a 15% share of the African arms market from 2021 to 2025. That places it behind the United States at 19% and China at 17%. Russia ranked first with a 21% share in the previous four-year period. Analyst Fidel Owusu said middle powers like Turkey and the United Arab Emirates are currently outperforming Russia in the region.

Diplomacy serves as a central objective for the summit. Owusu noted that Africa's large number of nations matters for voting blocs in the UN General Assembly. President Vladimir Putin told the Valdai Discussion Club that Russia aims "to develop together" unlike colonial powers. Filatova observed that the Russian narrative is well received in South Africa, though anti-colonial sentiment in other nations is not always aligned with Moscow.

The summit includes sessions on politics, security, science, and culture. Russia expects to compete for critical minerals, including lithium in Mali, and energy projects. The event concludes on October 29 with leaders from across the continent in attendance.