Israel votes on Netanyahu's fate as rightward shift defines race

Israeli voters cast ballots on Tuesday in an election that could determine the future of the country's political direction. The contest is closely fought, but both major camps have moved toward the right. This marks the first national vote since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent war in Gaza.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the country's longest-serving prime minister, seeks to extend his rule. He leads the most right-wing coalition in Israeli history, which includes far-right ultranationalist and ultra-Orthodox parties. Netanyahu faces a long-running corruption trial and an International Criminal Court warrant for war crimes in Gaza. His opponents form a Zionist bloc that has also embraced a right-wing approach to national challenges.

The campaign focused on accountability for security failures and the military service of the ultra-Orthodox. It did not center on the treatment of Palestinians. More than 74,000 people have died in Gaza since the war began. Despite a yearlong ceasefire, deadly attacks continue almost daily in the territory. In the West Bank, settler violence and Israeli army raids have intensified. No mainstream candidate has proposed including Arab-led parties in a future government.

Analysts say the political center has eroded over decades, accelerated by recent crises. The current government attempted to strip the Supreme Court of its review powers and flouted rulings on conscription. Ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich supported the judicial overhaul and encouraged violence in the West Bank. Their support helped sustain the coalition. If the opposition wins, a new prime minister might calm the domestic atmosphere, but the rightward shift is unlikely to reverse. The new leader would mirror the current political reality.

The vote is seen as a referendum on the nature of Israeli democracy. Yossi Mekelberg, a senior fellow at Chatham House, described the choice as deciding whether Israel remains a functioning democracy or a democracy in name only. He noted that the decision involves maintaining the occupation of the West Bank or annexing it entirely. Yehouda Shenhav-Shahrabani, an Israeli sociologist, stated that the political system operates within a framework of Jewish supremacy. He argued that neither the current government nor the opposition can be described as left-wing. Daniel Levy, a former government adviser, confirmed that the treatment of Palestinians is a consensus among Zionist parties, meaning none of it is on the ballot.