Polling Data Reveals 66.4 Percent of Lebanese Shi'ites Favor State Control of Hezbollah Weapons

Statistics Lebanon released findings from a survey conducted in September that suggest a notable shift in sentiment within the community that has historically supported the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. The research, which polled 800 Lebanese Shi'ites, indicates that the majority now favor placing the group's arsenal under the control of the state.

The central finding of the study is that 66.4 percent of respondents supported handing over Hezbollah's weapons to the Lebanese state. In contrast, 29.6 percent expressed a preference for the group to retain its military assets. This result stands in contrast to the group's long-held position that its arsenal is a necessary component for defending the country against Israel.

Kataeb.org, a website associated with the Christian Kataeb Party which maintains an opposition stance toward Hezbollah, provided additional context regarding political authority. The data shows that 71.1 percent of those surveyed believe that decisions concerning war and peace should rest exclusively with the Lebanese state. Only 5.9 percent indicated that Hezbollah's leadership should play a larger role in shaping the nation's future direction.

Trust in the national military appears to be strong among the surveyed demographic. Approximately 78.5 percent of respondents stated that they trust the Lebanese Armed Forces. Furthermore, 51.1 percent identified the army as the institution best equipped to guarantee long-term security. By comparison, only 16.5 percent selected Hezbollah for that role, challenging the group's traditional narrative regarding its protective mandate.

Despite the high regard for the state military, the overall assessment of Hezbollah's performance remains mixed. The survey found that 67.4 percent of participants felt the group had either failed to achieve its objectives in the war with Israel or had only partially succeeded. Additionally, 42.1 percent expressed disappointment, anger, or concern regarding the group's leadership and the aftermath of the conflict. However, a majority of 59.5 percent still reported some level of trust in the organization, with 37.1 percent indicating a great deal of confidence.

Roi Kais, a reporter for Israel's public broadcaster KAN, observed that the social and status networks Hezbollah has established within the sect continue to sustain its influence. He noted that the group's strength persists as long as no other political entity is able to fill the vacuum left by its services. This suggests that structural support, rather than just military success, may be a key factor in the group's endurance.

The recent figures diverge sharply from earlier polling data. An analysis published in June 10 by researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies cited a May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International. That earlier study found that 87.5 percent of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah, while only 7.9 percent supported relinquishing its weapons. The significant difference in results has prompted questions about how wording or survey agendas may influence the outcomes.

Mizrahi and Levanoni argued that Hezbollah's influence is rooted in its social and economic networks, its political power, and the historical marginalization of the Shi'ite community. They contended that intimidation has often discouraged dissent. To weaken the group, they suggested that a stronger Lebanese army and financial support from Western and Gulf nations would be required to allow the state to replace the services currently provided by the militia.

Local indicators of wariness have also emerged in the aftermath of recent conflicts. In the southern city of Tyre, property owners reportedly resisted the opening of a branch of Al-Qard Al-Hassan, a financial institution linked to Hezbollah. Their concern was that the presence of such a branch could make the building a target for Israeli strikes, a risk that has materialized in the past. Meanwhile, the group has announced financial aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 for those in other areas.

Hezbollah has endured significant military and leadership setbacks, including the death of Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024. A new war that began in March 2026 caused heavy destruction in villages across southern Lebanon. Whether current discontent translates into political change will likely depend on the ability of the Lebanese state to provide security, reconstruction, and economic opportunity to the population.