Midterm Elections: Experts Predict Third Phase of U.S. Iran Conflict

The United States and Israel are expected to resume military operations against Iran shortly after the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli military intelligence official who now works with the Institute for National Security Studies, stated that a renewed war appears almost inevitable. He believes the third phase of the conflict will be more destructive than the previous two.

The current conflict consists of two separate wars fought over the past 18 months under President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The first campaign began in June 2025 with strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and lasted 12 days before a ceasefire took hold. Fighting resumed in February following a large U.S. military buildup, beginning with Israeli attacks on Iranian senior leadership that included Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Citrinowicz expects the next round of strikes to focus on Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and communications systems. He specifically identified internet lines running beneath the Strait of Hormuz as likely targets. He also suggested Iran might use its land army to launch limited attacks on Gulf states hosting U.S. bases, such as Kuwait and Bahrain, to damage the American economy.

Since the summer truce collapsed, direct strikes have been limited, but tensions remain high. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports, and Iran has continued targeting commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. On Thursday, Trump accused Iran of inflating oil prices before the election on Truth Social. He claimed Iran was "making up fake hits, mines and everything else." A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed that these vessel attacks aim to pressure Washington into meeting Iranian demands.

Iran has requested sanctions relief, reparations for strike damage, the release of frozen assets, and the right to retain enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks attempting to restart talks without success. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution noted that the war has likely pushed Iran’s leadership to embrace revolutionary ideology more strongly. She warned that proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah would likely retaliate against economic sites such as airports.

The human cost of the conflict is substantial. Western non-governmental organizations report more than 7,000 deaths in Iran. Lebanese media cite over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members have been killed, mostly in Iranian strikes on Gulf bases. More than 70 Israelis have also died. Casualties have been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The Pentagon is reportedly drafting a new battle plan, though it is unclear if Trump will approve it.

Netanyahu has stated he wants to "finish the job" and bring down the Iranian regime. He faces voters in the coming days in a closely contested race. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power by enabling an emergency unity government. He warned that political calculation combined with an Iranian development could lead to an unnecessary attack. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that diplomacy is not dead but has been narrowed by Trump's maximalist aims. Sadjadpour said Iran would compromise only under existential economic pressure paired with a clear diplomatic exit.