Israel election count leaves both camps short of a working majority

Voters in Israel faced a fragmented political landscape on Wednesday evening as the Central Elections Committee reported that neither major camp has secured the 61 seats required to form a standalone government. More than five million votes cast in Tuesday’s election had been processed at the time of the report, with the official tally standing at approximately 88 percent. The remaining count, due to be finalized overnight, includes double-envelope ballots from military personnel, patients, prisoners, and certain election staff, which may shift the final seat distribution.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to win 53 seats, maintaining its lead in the count. The opposition bloc is expected to take 48 seats. The gap between the two sides is too narrow to overcome without the backing of Arab-list parties, which have won a record combined total of 19 seats. This dependence on a third group complicates the coalition-building process for both leaders.

Within Netanyahu’s camp, Likud is projected to claim 26 seats, returning it to the position of the largest single party in the Knesset. United Torah Judaism, Shas, and Otzma Yehudit are each expected to secure seven seats, while the Religious Zionist Party is projected to win six. These figures differ from pre-election polls, which had predicted a much smaller result for Likud and stronger showings for its coalition partners.

The opposition camp is led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which is projected to win 21 seats. Naftali Bennett’s B'Yachad is expected to take 12 seats, followed by Yair Golan’s The Democrats with eight and Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu with seven. Two smaller parties, Ofer Winter’s People of Israel and Yoaz Hendel’s The Reservists-Economic party, are projected to fall below the 3.25 percent threshold. A failure to cross this line would eliminate them from the Knesset, potentially altering the balance of power in coalition negotiations.

Tensions rose on Wednesday as Likud accused Arab parties of electoral fraud, citing bribery, intimidation, and ballot manipulation. The party demanded an immediate law enforcement investigation into the high turnout among Arab voters. The Joint List is projected to win 12 seats, while Ra'am is expected to take seven. These numbers suggest a substantial Arab parliamentary presence that both major blocs will need to address.

A unity government between Netanyahu and Eisenkot appears unlikely at this stage. Eisenkot has previously refused to serve under Netanyahu, even in a rotational leadership arrangement. Other opposition leaders have also ruled out joining a coalition led by the prime minister. President Isaac Herzog urged all parties to approach the mandatory consultations with open minds. "We must do everything, certainly after yesterday, to avoid another round of elections," he said.

Yair Golan stated he would meet with three unnamed opposition leaders on Thursday. He argued that the opposition holds a majority of 65 seats when counting Arab parties, compared to Netanyahu’s 55. Golan wrote on social media, "I know how to count to 120," pushing for an opposition-led government. However, Liberman and others have maintained that including Arab parties in a government is a red line, particularly following the 2023 conflict.

Eisenkot stated that the leader of the largest opposition party should be the candidate for prime minister, though no formal agreement on this point has been announced. A minority government that secures a confidence vote without the full 61 seats remains a theoretical possibility. Yousef Jabareen, chairman of the Joint List, said his party is ready to support the ousting of the Netanyahu government. MK Ahmad Tibi added that the opposition could form a government "if it has the courage."

Bennett, who helped form the first government to include an Arab party in 2021, has since taken a firm stance against including any Arab faction in a future coalition. The legal process requires President Herzog to consult with Knesset factions before selecting a candidate to attempt government formation. The outcome of these talks will determine whether Israel proceeds to a new parliament or faces a second election.